Demographics is destiny?

by David Haberstock

Many of you grew up in or lived through the Baby Boom—all those babies born post-war between 1946 and 1964. In 1964, the birth rate plummeted (about nine months after Kennedy’s assassination, though it had been declining before that). Culture began talking about how adults needed to become self-actualized and how kids were a drag on that. Movies and television shows went from celebrating children and family to portraying children and marriage as keeping you from being truly “you.”

Demographically speaking, society blossomed through the 1960s. Suburbs, schools, and churches were built at record pace. Sunday schools and pews were full. By the 1970s, the front end of the Baby Boom was out of college and the effects of the sexual revolution and the end of the Boom began to be seen in society and the church. Some already saw these trends then, but most of us slowly woke up to these facts in the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s. 

By the 2000s, the impact of smaller families and the new view of sexuality was having a profound impact on who was showing up to church. Many of our churches began not just noticing decline, but having financial and volunteer challenges. Congregations founded in those glory years of the 1950s and 1960s have now seen recent years where much of the founding generation has passed away—and anxiety has set in like never before. 

For too long as a church and a culture we have lived as though the demographic impacts of the Baby Boom were normative for all time. This causes incredible anxiety when congregations, by natural processes, age and decline.

Over these pandemic years, we’ve been hearing about staffing shortages everywhere, especially in healthcare. We act as though these issues were unique to the moment and entirely caused by the pandemic but they are as much demographic as pandemic. 

A year ago, while working on call lists for congregations, I looked at the age of Lutheran Church–Canada pastors and realized that roughly half of our currently active pastors have already reached or will reach age 65 within the next ten years. That means on average we may be having about ten pastors a year retiring for the next ten years—and we are not graduating ten new pastors a year from our seminaries. This is an item to pray about (see Matthew 9:37-38).

Then in recent months, I came across demographic data saying that these challenges are not merely within the church. This is a global phenomenon! The demographics of the entire world is like that of rapidly-aging Canada. Instead of a demographic pyramid where the youngest age cohort is the biggest and the oldest age cohort is the smallest, the world is roughly a column, with every age cohort being roughly similar in size. 

This means the age of more that we’ve experienced since the 50s—of endless numerical, economic, and institutional growth—has come to an end. Rather, decline and shrinkage is the order of the day everywhere as the workforce shrinks, the tax base shrinks, and the world shrinks.

A year ago, while working on call lists for congregations, I looked at the age of Lutheran Church–Canada pastors and realized that roughly half of our currently active pastors have already reached or will reach age 65 within the next ten years. That means on average we may be having about ten pastors a year retiring for the next ten years—and we are not graduating ten new pastors a year from our seminaries. This is an item to pray about (see Matthew 9:37-38).

I mention all of this because having a clear-eyed view of the world in front of us is the only way to have a clear view of Jesus’ blessings for you right now, and an idea of what to do. For too long as a church and a culture we have lived as though the demographic impacts of the Baby Boom were normative for all time. This causes incredible anxiety when congregations, by natural processes, age and decline. Certainly sin and conflict play a role in some situations of decline, but even if Jesus blesses your congregation with faithful pastors, faithful members, and the blessings of brethren living together in peace (Psalm 133:1), these demographic trends will still age and shrink your congregation just as they have acted on the rest of society. 

Rather than lament this, be aware of it. Plan for it. Band together as congregations and circuits and discuss what this means. One implication is that pastors are becoming an incredibly precious commodity (as are younger workers of all sorts)! So treat them well, support them in their calling so that it may go well with you and you may live long in the land. Making their life burdensome is of no advantage to you. 

Knowledge of demographics is powerful. To ignore demographic trends is to live with your eyes shut. However, it is not the whole story. Our Lord is still Lord of the Church and of the whole earth. We are still His body. He knows what He intends for His Church, and He has promised to preserve Her in these times and to use Her to declare His salvation to all mankind. 

Demographic trends need not alarm us, but we need to look honestly at what they mean and prepare for those realities (as the whole world must soon). Be faithful! Re-dig the stopped up wells of our fathers (Genesis 26:18), for the living waters of our Lord (Jeremiah 2:13; John 4:10) will not fail to provide for those who trust in Jesus. The gates of hell shall not prevail against us! But face the times we are in with a clear eye and seek wisdom. 

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Rev. David Haberstock is Lutheran Church–Canada (LCC)’s Central Regional Pastor.

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